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Showing posts from 2018

How the company beihng Tether is making money from the fools

The company behind Tether is making a shitload of money by selling USDT for $1 and buying it back for $0.95. Why they should stop it? It's profitable!

And since there are many people willing to sell their USDT for less than a $1 the show will continue.

Air gapped computer for signing transactions

Keeping the private keys only on a computer without Internet connection (WiFi, modem, Ethernet hardware removed by hand) and without USB interfaces (USB is not a secure interface, there are known exploits) is better if you are worried about firmware malware inside the USB devices (flash drives) and inside the UEFI and the Intel processors.

You can transfer the signed transactions using the monitor/keyboard, floppy discs or DVD/CD (not USB!).

Using USB devices is dangerous because their firmware may contain malware.
If you use USB printer it would be dangerous to reuse it on other computers, because of the risk that the printer is infected with malware (with access to the god mode processor malware).

You should assume that the firmware of your devices contains malware:
CPUPrinterUSB drivesHard drive (if any)UEFIKeyboard (key logger)Other (?) And verify that your monitor does not have a screen transmitter (like demonstrated in the Mr. Robot).

How Bitcoin is being manipulated

SEC is manipulating the price by delaying/denying/approving Bitcoin-related ETFs. China is manipulating the price by "banning Bitcoin" again and again. India is manipulating the price by "banning Bitcoin" again and again. Every buyer, seller and hodler is manipulating the price by buying, selling and hodling. Every person writing about Bitcoin on social media is manipulating the price. Every person talking about Bitcoin is manipulating the price. The media is manipulating the price of Bitcoin by promoting it (display BTC price in a way they display the oil price, talk about Bitcoin, make documentaries about Bitcoin). Everything is a manipulation.

How to encrypt your secrets with the scrypt utility on Ubuntu, print them on paper and then read them again

Your secrets are in the file secret.txt.Install the scrypt utility: $ sudo apt-get install scrypt Encrypt the file with custom scrypt parameters (about 1G of RAM, 200 seconds; in reality it takes less than 200 seconds on my system, see this Github bug report): $ scrypt enc -M 1073741824 -t 200 secret.txt encrypted.scrypt Now, you got your encrypted data in the file encrypted.scrypt. You can upload it to your favorite cloud storage provider (Google Drive, DropBox, email it to your Gmail, Proton Mail and Yahoo Mail addresses, etc.).If you want it on paper type into the command line: $ base64 encrypted.scrypt > encrypted.scrypt.base64.txt You can open the encrypted.scrypt.base64.txt file with your favorite editor (LibreOffice Writer) and set a proper font before printing it (this is critical - when printing your keys make sure you use a proper font (that don't have similar characters - like "I" and "l", zero and big O)).To decrypt the encrypted data:$ scrypt …

Bitmex Futures Math - many people don't know how it works

Why people open long positions if their bet is asymmetrical in the bad way.
If you open long position with leverage 1:1 your position will be liquidated (100% loss) when the price decrease by 49%.
The price must increase by 100% in order to get only 50% profit.
The maximum profit if price get to infinity (or really big number) is 99%.
If the price increase 10% you will get profit of 9.09%.However, if the price decrease by 10% you get loss of 11%.If the price increase 20% you will get profit of 16.67%.However, if the price decrease by 20% you get loss of 25%.If the price increase 100% (price x2) you will get profit of 50%.If the price increase 200% (price x3) you will get profit of 66.67%.If the price increase 300% (price x4) you will get profit of 75.00%. For movements below 10% it's almost linear, but for long term traders with long positions it's useless. It's good for traders shorting with leverage 1:1 (for "freezing" the dollar value of the coins).

No conspiracy theory needed to explain the short squeeze during the scheduled maintenance of Bitmex

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Bitcoin is more resilient than stocks to technical glitches in the exchanges, because stocks are traded on 1-2 exchanges (sometimes only 1), but Bitcoin is traded on many exchanges, like fiat currencies (Forex). I think that the Bitmex downtime had some role (when it was offline arbitrage bots was offline too, causing liquidity to decrease and make short squeeze more probable), but most journalists and "Bitcoin analysts" will exaggerate it. If Bitmex did not went down to maintenance, it's very probable that the short squeeze would happened anyway. Short positions to long positions ratio on Bitfinex were at record high (see "BTCUSDSHORTS-BTCUSDLONGS" on TradingView). No conspiracy theory is needed to explain the short squeeze. It's obvious for all market participants that the best time for short squeeze is when the liquidity is low and short positions on Bitfinex (one of the major spot exchanges allowing shorting on margin) are at record high. This is wh…

Futures market impact the real market

For every futures contract sold there is a futures contracts bought. If we move the same buyers and sellers from futures to the real Bitcoins the effect would be the same. Buying and selling futures make the exact same influence on the price of Bitcoin like buying or selling Bitcoin, because the futures markets are connected via arbitrage traders just like all Bitcoin exchanges are connected with arbitrage traders.

Fake SEC websites - sec.vote, sec.fund, sec.support - are collecting e-mail addresses for spam and phishing

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I gave my email address just to check the spam they will send. Looks like they beg for donations. Dear community, we actively study and decide on the application - CBOE SolidX Bitcoin, we believe that this will give impetus to the beginning and development for the entire cryptocurrency market and investors who need to reduce the risk from crypto-currency exchanges, we estimate this as an effective tool for everything. We are glad to inform you that we are opening a temporary deposit which, upon reaching the goal will be given a resolute response. What?

Interest to "bitcoin etf" keyphrase goind down, it's possible price to follow the downtrend

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Where is the Bitcoin's bottom?

There is too much optimism. Therefore, the bottom is not yet reached. We need more "Bitcoin will go to $100", "Bitcoin will go to zero", "China/India/Wakanda) is banning Bitcoin", "North Korea is mining Bitcoin", "Russian hackers are using Bitcoin" posts in order to hit the bottom and start the spaceship to the moon.Maybe it will go to about 2500 (the "pessimistic" forecast) before going to the Moon. There is a similarity between 2013-2014 and 2017-2018.

Evolve.markets or 1Broker - which to choose?

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If you want to speculate with Forex/stocks/indices/commodities but don't want the risk of margin call because the price of Bitcoin (account currency) plummets, I recommend 1Broker. The price changes of the traded asset are converted to changes of your BTC balance (the falling BTC price does not affect the forced stop loss). For example, if you open long position with size 1 BTC on S&P 500 with leverage 1:10, and it goes up by 10%, you get 100% profit (your BTC balance would be 2 BTC if you close your position): If your leverage is 1:20 - you get 200% profit (BTC balance become 4 BTC): On Evolve.Markets your profits and losses (including unrealized ones) are converted to BTC dynamically (like on any other MetaTrader broker). Also, your margin level is calculated constantly and if BTC price plummets you may get margin call (if it goes up you have more available margin). If your strategy is a long term (and you are worried about the hypothetical Bitcoin price plunge, which ma…

What will happen with Bitcon when stock market crashes?

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The stock market crash is imminent. It's not about "if", it's about "when". I expect also precious metals and cryptocurrencies to drop in value and their bottom to happen before the bottom of the stock prices. It's known from the behavioral economics that low liquid assets react more fast to the panic selling (panic buying). Here you can see how the bottom of the gold price occurred before the bottom of the stock prices: Want to make more Bitcoin from the crash? I recommend Evolve.Markets and 1Broker. Evolve.markets or 1Broker - which to choose?

Why drug traffickin is good and we need more of it, not less

Drug trafficking is not a bad thing. Because of drug trafficking (more trade, more competition) people can buy the drugs they need and pay a better price. We need more drug trafficking, not less. If the trade is free, the prices would be low and the poor people addicted to drugs will obtain them without the need of committing crimes (stealing and killing other people in order to obtain money to buy drugs). More drug trafficking will reduce crime. If you don't take addictive drugs you should support the decriminalization of drug sales, because if drugs are cheap you will be more safe - drug addicts will take their cheap drugs without the need to kill you in order to take your money. The drugs will be so cheap, that one small wage will be enough to purchase drugs which will be sufficient for a long period (even for life).

Insider trading or not?

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I trust the timestamp of the Twitter post (tweet), however I don't have proof that their blog post timestamp is correct. Why there is an 5 hours difference between the blog post and the tweet? 2018-07-02T09:01:01.105Z is UTC time, the NY time is 5:01. Read how to margin buy or margin sell Bitcoin here.

The elephant in the room about Tether

Even an audit is not enough to convince all that they should trust the Tether's tokens. Because there are many external risk factors. The elephant in the room are three-letter-agencies. They can do what they did to Liberty Reserve and BTC-E at any time. Maybe they are waiting it to grow more. Confiscating bank accounts is easy for them. USDT tokens are backed with USD in bank accounts. There are thousands of other tokens backed by promises and fantasies. Deal with it. For me there is no big difference between having audit and not having one. The main risk is from the governments, not from owners committing scam. If Tether's management want to commit fraud or fractional banking - they will do it regardless of the audit. Because the audit contains information from the past, not from the future. Caveat emptor.

Cold storage advice

Just use Electrum (from electrum.org) on a safe computer (no Windows).Or if you prefer the longer explanation.My opinion is you should understand how computer security works before to do anything.Some important things:Your keys and passwords might get written in the swap file/partition on your hard drive. Don't use swap or encrypt it.Your printer may have memory (hard drive).Your printed documents are saved on your hard drive and then deleted not securely (if you don't use non-HDD system, like Live Linux system from a CD/DVD)Your USB devices may have malware installed in their inner computer (not in the visible from the outside filesystem, it's not visible by the external anti-virus software).Make backup on paper (seed) before you load your wallet with coins. Don't lose the paper backup.

Why I think that the alleged market manipulation by the owners of Bitfinex and Tether is not a bad thing

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Anyone have the right to participate in the market. Even the owners of major infrastructure.

Bitcoin market cycle forecast - optimistic and pessimistic

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How to margin short and margin buy Bitcoin.Another comparison between 2013/2014 and 2017/2018 bubbles: How to margin short and margin buy Bitcoin.

Why Trump is increasing/introducing tariffs?

He wants to remove tariffs, quotas and subsidies. These big tariffs are method of extortion: "Let's we all agree to free trade. If you don't agree I will increase the tariffs.". It would be great if it works, however I am skeptical. The lobbyists (lobbying for tariffs) have deep pockets. Corruption is strong worldwide.

How to short Bitcoin on leverage (or not) and trade forex/stocks/commodities/indices/cryptos with anonymous Bitcoin account

To short Bitcoin I am recommending 1fox (BTCUSD only), Evolve markets (Forex, stocks, crypto, indices, commodities) and Bitmex (very high liquidity).Accounts are anonymous, no KYC bullshit.1fox is giving "financing" (on short positions about 0.1-0.3% every 12 hours) but there are "socialized losses" also. Net result is positive. Liquidity is bad (but this can be good because it's possible to arbitrage trade and buy/sell at good levels when cascade of stop losses occur).Evolve markets takes 0.2% swap, but liquidity is good.Bitmex gives you 0.0545% per 8 hours for short position on the "perpetual futures contract" (you pay 0.0545% on long positions), liquidity is excellent. On other future contracts (with expiration date) there is no swap. There is no KYC, when you sign up you may give your first and last name, but it's optional.You can use 1fox to "lock" the USD value of your coins buy opening short position with leverage 1:1 (it's be…

E-mail and phone are critical attack verctors when associated with your online accounts

I think that there should be no e-mail associated with accounts.Email accounts are another point of failure and attack vector.Also phone numbers should not be associated with accounts, this is a huge security flaw.The best way to secure an account is with long passphrase, non-phone-number 2FA (with Google Authenticator or hardware device using public key cryptography) and/or PGP key.Passphrase recovery should not be possible or really hard and uncomfortable (you need to fly to the office in person with your passport and 3 witnesses + 1 year waiting period).

Why regulated and 'legal' exchanges will not use Lighting Network

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The proposed Lightning network has each node performing routing for any participant on the network. A licensed exchange cannot transmit money for anyone without KYC/AML. So either exchanges won't use Lightning, or they're demand that anyone that wants routing must have KYC/AML. If Lightning can circumvent KYC/AML, then that will exclude exchanges and payment processors and anyone else that, you know, obeys the law, from using LN; and since the vast majority of buyers and holders buy on Coinbase, Bitstamp and other regulated exchanges, and since the vast majority of merchants use Bitpay and other regulated merchant gateways, and since your local coffee shop doesn't want to be in the clandestine Lightning Hub business any more than they want to be an illegal credit card processing gateway or uninsured mobster credit union, that Lightning is basically a non-starter for most use legal, typical cases. Before anyone says "yeah but" the answer is no, this is nothing …

Storj vs BlackBlaze vs SIA

StorageBackBlaze: $0.005 USD/GB/month Storj: $0.015 USD/GB/month SIA: $0.00321 USD/GB/month DownloadBackBlaze: $0.02 USD/GB download Storj: $0.05 USD/GB download SIA: $0.00087 USD/GB download Other feesSIA: $0.00066 USD/GB upload SIA: $2.08 USD Contract formation fees (one-time fee) LinksSia stats: https://siastats.info/storage_pricing.htmlBackblaze: https://www.backblaze.com/b2/cloud-storage-pricing.htmlStorj: https://storj.io/

Stock market is crashing

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Interest rates have remained extremely low since 2008 even through the economic upturn over the past few years. This has caused an increased amount of borrowing which has caused many to become highly leveraged. There is speculation that interest rates will be increased soon, which will cause some highly leveraged businesses to become over-leveraged and to default on their debts. The speculation is therefore that we are in for a big correction soon, so investors are trying to take their gains now.

Substratum will contain dangerous "democratic" censorship feature!

On their official website they say: The decentralized web is all about independent and open information. No single party has the ability to control what can or cannot be seen. Bad players like child pornography or terrorism can be identified by members of the Substratum Network by voting content up or down. If a consensus is reached, obscene content will be removed. Substratum's voting algorithm takes a range of factors into consideration before removal, including each user's substrate count, how long they've been a member, and their own voting frequency. This helps prevent big organizations from gaming the system and minimizes the impact of political or opinion-based voting.Watch the "The Orville" episode "Majority rule" to learn more about the dangers of "democracy".

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